Long-term Information and Short-Term Changes

Limetree Financial Services Limited

Long-term Information and Short-Term Changes

We’ve talked before about long-term strategies being supporded by long-term information. It is always helptul to have good indications of planned economic activity, but these don’t always seem as clear during current, changing circumstances. When planning investement, it’s interesting to look at trends alongside immediate changes. This month’s Rightmove house price index is a good place to see this.

The Rightmove house price index for September shows a 1.5 per cent decrease in the average house price from the previous month, though the firm has raised its 2013 forecast to six per cent.

In that 1.5% per cent drop, Rightmove is seeing the usual summer market slow-down continuing this month, and sellers are accepting less for their properties than anticipated. Their director and housing market analyst – Miles Shipside – has called this drop counter-intuitive, because the buyers’ demand remains high. So, house prices are down a bit, and sellers are slow to list their properties. But, and here’s where it gets interesting, Rightmove are anticipating a surge. They’ve lowered the estimates for September, but increased the expectations for 2013. How can this be?

Well, Rightmove is looking at their trends data, and have seen some indicators that the market is likely to pick up.

The fall in new listings and a rise in search activity indicates an upcoming autumn price surge, with new seller asking for higher prices again in the last two weeks.

Even when immediate information points downward – house prices are a bit lower than expected in September so far – many analysts are looking at longer-term activity and see trends which are bigger than the current few weeks.

It is more important, though, to say that the big, economic numbers being discussed don’t mean that individuals cannot get a good deal on their property investment (whether you’re buying or selling). But it means that the more information you have, the more you can improve your investment strategy.

Why not give us a call, so we can talk about your particular circumstances, and work out the best ways you can get the most from your property.

P.S. We’re expanding, and are looking for a Mortgage Administrator to join the Limetree team. If you’re interested, have a look at the jobs board for more details. To apply, simply send us your CV.

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